use difference in RPI and historical 11th game to load coin
well, really, I suggest using a pluggable coin loading system ... but over the course of the season, build up a database of 11th games (given the last 10 of team x, last 10 of team y, what's the outcome, key by rpi difference); the load of the coin becomes, lookup the result and rpi difference for all 11th games for matchups with similar 10 game streaks as the current teams, weight those by rpi distance from current game. now I have a propertly loaded coin.
zoo broker
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zoo broker
commented
sorry, meant to add some context ... teams with close rpi difference and with the same "last 10", you would expect the coin to be loaded 50/50. if team A has a large rpi difference and similar "last 10", you would expect a moderate advantage. if team A has a large rpi difference, but is struggling in their last 10 while team B is on the ups, team B might even expect a moderate advantage. you'll still want to use HFA as a scalar, but actual record could go away.
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zoo broker
commented
err, "properly".
