MLB number cycling between correct and crazy wrong
Somethings really screwed on the dodger chart (and the entire league). How can their playoff chances to be one of the wildcards go up the more they lose?
Well that’s messed up. Let me take a look. Thanks for the heads up.
Update: I still don't know what is causing this. I've fixed some quasi related bugs, but nothing that seems a likely culprit. I added yet more logging, saving the state of the season every time the numbers run along with the numbers produced. Please yell when you see the bug again.
Thanks all for the added info
Like you say, the numbers for MLB (and maybe other leagues) have been cycling between correct and crazy wrong for a month or two now.
I have not yet figured out what I'm doing wrong. I'm still looking (even though it's too late for this season).
I'm sorry for not even noting on the page that the numbers are suspect.
It appears as though there's a glitch processing the two wildcard spots. Detroit and Chicago Are both listed as being the likely 4th or 5th team, despite having win totals well under other wildcard teams. For some reason their close race for the division seems to be affecting the calls for the wildcards.
Looking at the American League Playoff Chances chart, it is still really messed up. Showing Detroit having 7% chance to get 1st Seed. There are only 7 games left and Detroit has 83 wins and Texas has 91 wins. There should be 0% chance. It appears to be even more messed up for the wildcard since they only have 83 wins. Baltimore currently has 89 and Oakland currently has 88. The probability of them winning either of those spots should be really low since there are also a couple of teams in between them and those spots.
Still seeing this as the chart is showing the dodgers and diamondbacks can both make the playoffs without winning any more games this season
This (or something) appears to be happening for the Tigers as well. Detroit is listed as having a very high chance to make the playoffs one day, then low the next.
When their chances are 'low' they look correct - essentially its their shot at their division title. When it's 'high' the numbers make no sense - it shows them with a high likelihood of winning a wild card, but with fewer games won than any of the other wildcard contenders.
Orioles and Rays for instance typically need 90+ wins to have a decent shot at the wildcard. The Sox appear to be rated highly with only 86 or so wins.
Again, it messed up today, and then fixed itself. I'm too beat/drunk to look at today. If by drunk I mean 2 beers.
I dug into this but don't have an answer.
The score updates Adam sent where perfect for the days the Dodgers made wild swings, so it has to be a bug in my code. I've been making a ton of changes, and fixing bugs caused by those changes. One (changing over to a more powerful way to describe tiebreakers, and porting MLB over to those tiebreakers) caused a bug like this one, but I thought I fixed it before the latest craziness. Unfortunately I haven't been keeping track of when I push out which code changes.
It seems the odds have looked good lately. So for now we watch and wait. :)
Thanks for taking the time to tell me about this brokenness.
PS: I reran all the old numbers so the incriminating evidence disappeared from the odds in graph. Broken? naw, it was never broken.
PPS: If you see more craziness look at the team's what if section. The tell tale sign of the allegedly fixed bug would be numbers scattered everywhere with no regard to how you finished out the season.
This has been happening to several teams. Somehow the Braves playoff chances dropped 30.6 after winning yesterday.