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• Adminkendroberts (Admin, Sports Club Stats) commented  ·  November 25, 2012 11:37 p.m.  ·  Delete

  Russ. Your right.

  For those following along at home, on this page:
  http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.txt
  you can find this line:
  PercentOfGamesThatEndInTie: 0.004
  which tells the sim that future games have a .4% chance of being ties.
  But historically : 3 ties / (256 games per year * 10 years ) = .1%
  so the sim will see 4 times the ties and thus the odds won't be as accurate as they could be.

  I did that because I want to show ties in the big games and what if sections, but at .1% the sim saw too few ties to make those numbers meaningful.
  I could add the extra ties separately just for big games and what if, but it is simpler now to leave them all together.

  But hey, maybe the new overtime format will make .4% too low instead of too high.

  thanks,
  Ken